Chest drop predictor


#21

As soon as you fill something in in one dropdown the rest should begin filling themselves in automagically. Then you keep filling in dropdowns until they’ve all been replaced with predictions, should usually not take more than 5 or so for it to lock in on your personal rotation. Let me know if it won’t work for you and I’ll try to figure out why.


#22

For now you can do that by starting to fill in at another spot. For example if you’re at 10/30 now and open 1 chests, simply fill it in on row 11. The app doesn’t care if you start at the top or not, it’ll predict from any spot.

When doing this, keep in mind that opening chest by 10 will push the bonus back. So if you’re at 28/30, and open 10, the bonus will only be generated after that, so to correctly simulate that, you’d have to fill them in at row 21-30, just before the bonus.

I admit it’s not the most user-friendly solution, but it was the easiest to make for now :grin: I’ll look into an option for manually shifting the bonus position later.


#23

Ah, see? Dunce here… As soon as I chose three it started. (not sure if the gap is ok at 18) this is not actual data since I was just testing.

Thanks!


#24

Nice, good to see it working. The gap at 18 can happen, or even later. It’s the first rare drop in this sequence, so it doesn’t know where you are in the rare drop rotation yet. Sometimes the first drop will lock it in, sometimes it’ll need a few to know for sure where you are. As you tell it more, you’ll see less and less options in the drop downs since it only shows the things that could possibly fit that spot and still match a pattern.


#25

I still can estimate how many sigil/token…I will get if I just calculate the cycle of each rarity, the percentage of drop rate and the amount of chest I have, right?

I calculated I would get about 3.7k sigil with 3122 bronze chests and turn out to be 3.8k; as well as 19.6k token then result about 20k. A bit less more or less just because I round cycle down and different starting point


#26

It will work as you say because it does go through the cycle over and over, but the exact set of 10 will not repeat. That is what I meant.

Well, the exact sequence… There are likely many sets of 10 that are identical, but the larger pattern doesn’t repeated until after many thousands.


#27

Yep, for large quantity predictions you don’t really need (or want) this tool, Mechengg’s sheet or Savage’s predictor are fine for that. This is more a niche thing for questions like “should I open 20/30 more chests and hope I get those last pearls/sigils/whatever that I need, or is it better to wait for the next event”.


#28

it is just for my curiousity of how effective this estimation would work :yum:


#29

Do you think it would be possible to build this in spreadsheet form so I don’t have to worry about accidentally closing the tab? :slight_smile:


#30

I know I can’t build this in Excel or google sheets, unfortunately. But the good news is it does store your selections in a cookie so it will stay if you close the tab.

Until I break it that is, which might well happen a few times in the beginning as I fix and update things. Screenshots or copy-pasting the results to Excel is your safest bet for now.


#31

Ah, ok. I love cookies!

Thanks for all y’alls work on this. War Dragons would not be nearly as good without this awesome community.


#32

download


#33

@Morreion website down?


#34

Oh, looks like it, I’ll have a look


#35

They got it back up again!


#36

How do I use it? My gold chest count isn’t at zero …


#37

If you open in sets of 10, you can just start at the top. The bonus chest will only be calculated once you open it, so you still open 30 golds before that.

If you want to open singles, simply skip the first 6 spots and start filling in at line 7.


#38

I honestly think that Sam would need to start filling in at cell 7 no matter what. Isn’t that how it’s done? Like if she presses “open 10” then she fills out 7-16 with the drops and it tells her what the next progression looks like. This is the only way to get the bonus in the right spot.

Unless i’m off here…

Wait that’s not entirely right either…


#39

Nope, I’ve actually tried it out, and if I am at 25/30, and open 10 chests in one go, the bonus chest isn’t triggered in the middle but after the 10 regular chests are determined.

edit: In the end you still end up with the same drops of course, it’s just the order that changes


#40

Open 4 more to get to 10?