No, that is the chance for when you tap on the water at your base the whale does a breach.
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I have actually seen it, but yes it is super rare. I think I have only seen it twice in 4 years. There could have been more that I didnāt see of course.
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Iāve seen this multiple times, though every time I did, I thought it was a bug, meaning that the game wasnāt registering that the event was active and I would reboot it immediately after 
Iām glad I know now!
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