Determining Opportunity Loss


#61

I agree with that. Stop trying to use some logical solution. Give everyone the max potential lost. Everyone is happy

It literally cost pg nothing to do this. Not doing it does cost them. As I and others have stopped spending. Yes some still are but a lot are stopping when a generous and transparent compensation would have an opposite positive effect


#62

Lost opportunity is hard to quantify mathematically.

https://learn.stashinvest.com/formula-opportunity-cost-calculate – Is a pretty simple explanation that is NOT dealing with investing.

Generally you measure the cost incurred to achieve a specific benefit. In WD, cost is time and money (and certain in-game consumables, such as heal potions and XP boosts).

I would think the easiest way to generalize lost opportunity for things that scale would be to look at level, look at activity for the week or two prior to the inability to play, or the inability to do “the thing,” (probably in bands of 0.10-0.20 – you see inactive, low, active and very active, but the scale is from 0.0 to 1.0). Take an average for each band at each level band (already set by those existing scales), and compensate accordingly.

For things that do NOT scale, activity is probably the best measure.

Yes, I get that players play differently, but I’m trying to suggest something that is more tailored than a general gift but not as much work as individualized gifts. One player COULD be “Very active” but not really grind tokens, and another could grind a 100 missions every day. They will have achieved different things, and different players have higher value on different things (so, there is not a universal gift or 10 that will make everyone happy).

As PGMichael said, the real goal is not to make the gift better but to make the game more stable and consistent.

That’s my two cents on this one. :man_shrugging:


#63

Sorry that is the dumbest idea i’ve read so far lmao.


#64

No offense but I think you need to brush up on opportunity costs since you will face decisions throughout your life that will be impacted using OC.

Do I build my own deck or pay someone to do it? Guess it depends on what else you could do with your time, money, or whether you get enjoyment out of doing it yourself.

Should I stand in line at Build a Bear for 7 hours or more to get a custom teddy bear for the price of my child’s age? I don’t know, If you can’t come up with the $20 some other way in seven hours I guess it would be OK. (this REALLY just happened and people were angry about waiting).

Should I spend money on this game or go on a trip or maybe buy my kids something for supper besides Alpo?

Time is worth a LOT to some people, while not as much to others. Since we have a limited time on this big blue ball, some might argue that time is the most valuable possession there is.

Here endeth my rant but there should be no distinction between spenders and non spenders.


#65

I wait for someone bring out the mathematics of statistic prediction base on the past value, fitting data method and those estimation method they teach in university :joy:

or just simple throw 5-10 gold chest depend on how long the issue is solved


#66

Jared, here are my thoughts.

You can do it one of two ways, the easy way or the accurate way.

If you do it the easy/fast/efficient way for your staff, then the gifts you give out may not be truly representative of the items that players lost, and you should err on the side of caution. This may cost more virtual currencies by “over compensating” some individuals and you may have a lost opportunity cost of the cost that players may have spent to obtain those items, but you will make up for some of those costs with the quick and efficient distribution of gifts and creating a “happy” player base who are more likely to be retained playing the game and a bit more willing to spend knowing that they won’t be under compensated if things do happen to go awry.

If you choose to do it the accurate way, then you should really start with breaking down the event into what folks would have lost both discretely and opportunity wise:

  • tokens
  • sigils
  • rubies
  • etc

This would stem from points that players expected to get in events, atlas, seasons, etc. It really has to be broken down per event and see what types of items have missed opportunity costs associated with them.
For each item, it might make sense to break it down into brackets and “piece meal” gifts out for certain brackets. For example:
Sigils: Sigils are an item that is probably broken down more by league and spending, so distribution of items by league and spending brackets might be the best way to do this. Create a matrix of spending on one axis and league on the other and then create some suitable brackets (6 or 7 maybe)
Tokens: Tokens are mostly based on activity level and league. Again, create a matrix based on activity and league and link similar groups (aka low league but high activity might be the same as high league but low activity). Alternately you could break people down into total # of missions completed last week. 0-49, 50-199, 200-499, 500+ and give out tokens based on that plus a separate tokens for the league.
etc

It would take far more computing power to give out accurate losses, so going with Gox’s suggestion (or a rendition of) would I believe not only create a happier culture, but there would be greater player moral, more spending that goes back into the game (more than the virtual currency opportunity cost lost from the “over compensation”) and probably the most important of all it would provide PG with an incentive to keep the errors down. We understand that they happen, but if more gifts are given out with higher values, then maybe internally a bit more reviews and signoffs will happen to try and prevent these errors from happening in the first place. It could be a very good selling point to try and get more budget for QC activities and review periods for the engineering team :slight_smile:

Mech


#67

Don’t split players into groups.
The main point of these ‘apology gifts’ in my mind is to try and maintain goodwill with the playerbase. So I’d say determine the max loss, go through the process you described, and give prize to everybody. And don’t forget, a few gold chests can go a long way.


#68

I think PG (and maybe they’re right) worry that the people who experienced the largest loss will resent the fact that everyone got the same compensation.

I can see how it might devalue their compensation TBH.

:thinking:


#69

In this theoretical issue I would be in the highly active group that had the higher losses. I would not be unhappy for others getting same comp. I’d be happy to not send 37tickets, spend 12hrs writing the same thing over and over, etc. I’m willing to have all comp the same just to get it over with in a painless manor. These are not astronomical amounts anyways. It’s not like it’s gonna be 400k eggs so I go up a tier lol. Say someone grinds 5-8k tokens a day like me. 15-24k eggs is no dramatically upsetting the balance of someone who does 1-2k. It’s literally 1/10 of one dragon


#70

I can understand that, but I think it’s the wrong approach. It’s harder to quantify goodwill than time not able to be spent playing.


#71

These are examples of paid services that have not worked properly. The playing of the game is free. Using previous and unrelated spending as an indication of compensation for an unpaid and free service seems a strange way to go about it.

You could argue that a restaurant should comp you 10% of everything you ever spent with them for a one off issue. Something which could be substantially more than the damage caused. And that’s a paid service.

I understand that you want the compensation to scale to an extent but then you are furthering the distance between pay to play players and free to play players. And when the issue is unrelated to spending I strongly feel that spending should have no bearing at all on the outcome. We all know spending has enough advantages as it is.


#72

Basically it’s either recieve a general comp pretty much right away and some get extra. Or it takes 2-3weeks while everyone is wondering what it will be or if it’s even coming. Then they have potential to read the code wrong or whatever then you get the wrong amount Making you have to go back through another painstaking arguement with support. I’d much rather the first personally


#73

Happy to see I’m not the only one who feeds the kids Alpo. :joy:

Really from the responses I took time to read, I think @Gox1201 had it right. Flat gift to everyone across the board for what would have been the reasonable loss for some of the best grinders in game. I’m not sure if he mentioned it in his post, but not only does it offer the benefit of goodwill towards the player base, it’s also an incentive towards quality control on the side of the developer. If you don’t wanna give too much out in apology gifts, don’t do things you have to apologize for.


#74

I thought about it some more.

You wanna make compensation easy?

Atlas? Have it? Yes. You get some egg tokens. Flat amount, scaled upwards by how many castles/land they own.
Elite? Have it? Yes. You get one day credit per day outage.
Have a team? Yes. Get egg token amount for daily login for that league.
Mission tokens. 125%? 100%? Elite? Without using rubies, calculate the maximum amount of egg tokens a player can earn in a day per bonus/w/wo/Elite. That’s how many egg tokens they get.
Daily multipliers. Throw in enough Xp pots to cover a x5,x4,x3 loss (based on player level, max xp, no research/boosts/runes/riders applied) on 1 dragon.
Throw in a token 5 gold chests to say we are sorry and be done with it. Best part about it, a lot of gold chest drops scale by player level AND the player chooses when to open them to increase their odds of obtaining what they want.

Take it or leave it. You can’t and won’t ever please everyone. And for Pete’s sake, stop PX/Zendesk reps from giving out compensation for these elaborate spreadsheets and long winded rants about how they are “owed” some stuff because they couldn’t play. They’ve been comped everything they PAID for, with a little extra. That is what is getting you guys into this mess in the first place…

Best part about it, it covers most of the “true” opportunity loss as the player may have been able to claim “some” of the mentioned items you are comping them for. It’s costing PG $0, so go for it.

Edit-Made a few edits to include some things. This should more than make up for anything.


#75

I am 100% agree with this idea as I thought many where. PG recently did something similar but scaled it by level and people are freaking out because some where affected more than others but everyone is getting a flat gift across levels. Image if it was flat with no level scaling. A big problem is you can’t make everyone happy and perception. Some people will ALWAYS think they deserve more or the next person deserves more. If flat is not an option then it should be broken by atlas, missions, sigils if during PVP, rubies for the rest. If you want heal pots, boost, xp purchase it with the rubies. @mechengg went into detail so I won’t go on. I think he hit the nail on the head.


#76

This or some variation of it.

I would start by putting together a complete list of all things that can be accomplished including things that aren’t always in play (events, seasons, etc) - don’t forget atlas stuff

Then figure out the maximums as per what Gox said. It should be as easy as that. Send to all. I realize there is concern about sending too much out, but let that motivate PG to try and need to do it less often.

FYI these maximums wouldn’t necessarily need to be calculated each time. Although they could be if you had a spreadsheet that you just filled in values for with all possible situations. But just as easily could be baked into a worst cast number based on duration. If you figured 1,000 rubys per hour of outage, rounded up, and just credited this way for example. (Not sure that number is realistic)

If somehow that isn’t acceptable then you make
It into a small, medium, larger system. Figure out an average and a minimum along with the maximum and use those three numbers to make high level decisions. (I’m not suggesting sending the minimum possible out is ever good, but you should never send less than that)

Of corse it can still get hairy, for example
If you figure the average player lost an opportunity to earn 8,000 sigils and some players have no further need for sigils due to being done with the whole season, we get into some upset folks. But I’d say it’s thousands of times better than the current system. And if you credited rubys it would not be an issue.

What you guys should do is avoid giving out prizes that are considered junk. Better to credit rubys or gold chests. Nobody wants to see 5 gunpowder’s. Even those who need them, until you start giving out 100 or more it’s just insulting.

Most importantly I think is to add incremental improvement to the current system which feels more like you just got tipped a penny as a restaurant worker. Sometimes just saying you are sorry will be more meaingful. Sending everyone something too tiny is usually felt like a slap in the face.