Gear crafting drop rates

The other thread about this was closed. I know the drop rate for legendary is 5%, but I heard someone saying that the drop rate changes for each element as you gain more legendary gear? I have been crafting nothing but ice shields for the past month, since that is my only non legendary piece left. Out of approximately 250 attempts, I still cant get legendary. Is this just the RNG kicking my ass, or is there some truth to the drop rate getting worse as you approach a full legendary set?

The drop rates don’t change they are fixed. We don’t try to reduce your chances based on how much gear you already have.

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Im 24k scrolls into a dry spell, it sucks for sure.

I wish better luck for you next week during the crafting event lol

I’ve crafted like 27 common defensive fire helmets in a row now if that makes you feel better.

I have the same feeling
Usually,we are getting 1 legendary item per 27-35 crafted items
When I finished dark gear set and 1/2 or 2 others,I felt like it was awfully decreased
I crafted 87 items and 0 legendary
I’m not sure that I had crafted that much at all ever
I spend tons of shards and scrolls ,and about 6k Rubies to speedup it. Because I can’t believe that i can be out of luck for so long

And it happened in last 3-6 months

I had a very strict feeling,that chance to craft is based on number of legendary gear,which you already have
Of it have been nerfed after release of elite

We’ll assume that echo didn’t lie, which I think is a safe assumption.

So, the other possibility is that the chance isn’t a chance, but a deterministic distribution that has already been set. The other drops are that way. This one probably is too.

@SavageAFforPG fwiw, bounded chance is a strictly better player experience. For example, if something drops 1 in 50 times you’ll definitely get one after no more than 50 attempts. You might get it on the first attempt, or the 50th attempt (each has equal probability) but you’ll never have to wait to the 51st attempt or later.

This is important, especially when you think about a large player base. Because a true 1 in 50 (2%) chance would mean that there’s a non-zero probability that you don’t get what you want in the first 50 drops (36.4% aka 1 in ~3 players) … or even 100 drops (13.3% aka 1 in ~7.5 players) … or even 500 drops (!!) (1 out of every 25k players) or more! tl;dr True chance doesn’t seem so bad, unless you happen to be that unlucky player who takes 10x or longer than the intended “worst case” of 50.

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This is true. They both have advantages (and disadvantages). It was never my intent to demonize. I have long said that it will all work out, and by the time you have 10 legendary sets, you will have crafted 1600 items, just like Apophet takes 200k tokens.

On smaller scales, one will seem worse than the other, but taken in whole, they are almost the same.

As a counterpoint to your correct comment, the advantage to something truly random is that I might get “the 5k drop” two times in a row. Very unlikely, but at least possible.

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I want to highlight this part for the others, since this the key.

AFAIK, Dave is using 1/50 as an example and not a reference to anything, based on my own experience, the 1/20 for legendary armor is not specific to any piece or element. So, getting any legendary price will “count.” but if you “beat the odds” and get 3 in 5 attempts (or whatever, something short), the bounded chance is large enough to account for this. And you should expect a dry spell. If you happened to be close to the “3 almost in a row” when you first started, it’s very possible that anyone go much more than 20 without a single legendary armory drop. Technically, your not “due” for a fourth piece until sometime in attempts 63-83, but if you will again get two close together, you night not get them until closer to 103.

I don’t have the armor sequences (I suspect they are server side or tucked in an atlas file that isn’t conveniently labeled “For Savage’s Review”). :joy:

That is a little bit of conjecture, but the key take away is that you can’t beat the odds, since there is nothing random. As Dave said this is actually good, you won’t have to craft 500 times to get a legendary piece. On the flip side, if you get one set in 125 attempts, like @mechengg did, you probably are going to have a while before you have another set.

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I’m personally a fan of it being randomly independent such that each time you craft gear, for example, the game rolls the tier every single time rather than following a predetermined pattern. I like the random chance aspect and while it does have the possibility that the odds will beat me over the head with a metal pipe (200 crafts and no legendary), it also gives me a chance to beat the odds.

Same thing with chest prizes. The 5k sigil prize from super sigil chests based on the drop chance (which is actually a frequency rate), it increases the number of sigils you get per chest by 5-6. But this is only true if you get exactly 130 legendary drops such that you complete a full cycle. This means that if my cycle starts with the legendary after that prize, I won’t get it until 129 legendary drops later. This sounds significantly less appealing than having it be a random chance every time even though if my cycle is ~10 legendary drops prior to the 5k drop I’m gonna get a good deal/ratio. Not to mention that banking on getting the 5k sigil drop to finish a branch is pretty silly. After all, 5-6 sigils per chest on average isn’t going to make or break a season if you have to get 130 legendary drops.

I can see the negative impact it would have on dragon breeding, however. Apophet costing 400k tokens because of bad luck would certainly be dreadful.

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I take this as confirmation.

Now does someone want to crack the crafting code?

It won’t matter.

I don’t think you can skip around. You will. Just know… So you could be smarter and use the known not legendary to queue up cheap stuff. If it works like drops. But it might be more complex. Idk.

Just be smart and craft something all the time but not duplicate items. Keep it flowing so that you don’t have the sense of time crunch during the events.

What Mech has suggested is a very good tactic, even though he probably didn’t know why. Or he had a different why than I do.

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