How is this for bad luck

So … since 25th May I figure i’ve forged 6 items a day in the forge … so that’s at least 156 items ? Not a single elite.

Not one.

Just a streak, I forged two pieces of elite gear in last couple days. Seems to go in spurts.

yeah kids are doing OK and boasting about it … i’m crying inside … that’s a BAD streak …

Why 6 instead of 8? I always try to keep my forge busy… Might want to open more slots :hugs:

I can keep it busy with 3, so I am probably forging at least 8 a day ( I was estimating based on 3 slots, at least twice a day) … but i’m unsure if I should bother, i’m just throwing shards away… another day without an elite item…

PG says it’s 5% chance every time we forge, so realistically we could end up never getting an elite item.

0.95 to the power of 156 so 0.03% chance of it happening according to rates from pg, but I doubt it’s actually random like this.

that assumes that in that time I got one … and I haven’t :slight_smile: By the way, it was confirmed by PG … because I thought I was just being paranoid …

yeah if you don’t get it on 157th the chance just keeps decreasing. But since chests drops and other stuff in this game run on certain sequences I suspect it’s the same for gear grafting. Could be wrong though.

for a long time people thought it was something like a single deck of rarities, kind of like how silver chests work but much longer. more recently, people were thinking it’s just bounded to 5 out of every 100. If I understand that theory correctly, the longest stretch without should be 190. but then you should get a bunch at once.

When I don’t get some for a long period of time, I usually just work on a different set. Usually seem to get one pretty quick when I change sets

Does this mean that over time my rates will be close to 5%? Is there a circle at all… because I feel like it’s a lot lower for me.

over time the rate is 5% for elites, yes. we don’t know if there’s a repeat in the pattern, but I tracked mine in detail for a long time, and did not identify any pattern. There was also a later crowd-sourcing effort, which is where the it’s just 5 guaranteed per 100 idea came from.

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but you don’t know how quickly you’d have gotten it if you didn’t change. unless you have an alt and try both methods. this is some serious confirmation/saliency bias imo.

Someone said once that it’s possible each piece of gear has its own sequence. And I think that’s pretty possible based on what I’ve seen. My switching is more out of frustration. Like: okay no luck here, I’m gonna try this piece instead :rofl:

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They told me that it’s 5% chance each time you forged something … so still not seen an elite item :slight_smile: I might just stop, keep the shards for upgrading and get my gear from atlas seasons …

It could be a 5% chance in a sequence too :wink:

Good things come to those who wait!!

Keep forging but don’t do the same item or you will end up with two identical elite pieces. It has happened to several of us

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Soooo many times. Sucks when it’s the defense gear that does it! :frowning:

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Lol … I am not sure i am ever going to see one, let alone two … we are now in the 2nd month (32 days) and still no Elite. To be fair, I didn’t forge during the leveling event, I leveled what I had.