Super Sigil chest worth it? I think so, opened this earlier today
A lot better than what I got!! Lol
Much better luck than me! The issue with SS chests is that it is very random the amount of sigils you get. You were lucky then but that is probably better than I ever did.
I can’t get past the whole “Legendary” drop ranging from 250 to 1000. Big range to all be considered truly legendary IMO.
There seems to be a fixed sequence for Epics of 50/125/75/25 - so not very random at all! I don’t get enough Legendaries to know if they also follow a fixed sequence - can anyone who’s amassed more rubies than me confirm either way?
Maybe rare 25, epic from 50-250, Legendary 500-1000 would be a better formula either way I’m not complaining with 1100 Sigils lol
OK I’ve opened 2 more sets of 10 all giving me the same or better in sigils, also the gold chests I was getting from season divine lineages have been throwing legendary like crazy, this is a great event. I have at least 5 if not 10 levels of xp ready lets go Fortification next please lol
You will average around 800 to 850 opening 10 at a time, until you have opened 50. Then the average will be slightly more than 1000 per 10.
The odds are quite consistent. But you must open 10 at a time.
The epics do not seem random because in their category (epic) they each have a 25% chance of dropping.
Here are some predictions my super sigil calculator made
The actual number was about 2,000 sigils more. But that data is not mine, so I won’t share it.
Considering that we’re looking at almost 150k sigils total, my error rate was just a hair over 1.5%.
All that to say… You can know the odds.
And yes, other than the red envelope, if you just want to finish a line, the SS chests are the “best deal.” Unlike gold chests, however, they don’t prepare you for anything else.
The dollars (or rubies) per sigils are fewer, but is it a better deal? That depends upon your goals.
The epics do not seem random because they are not random! There’s not a 25% ‘chance’ of them dropping, they literally appear in the same exact order every time.
It’s easy to see if you look at any screenshot that anyone’s posted of opening 10 sigil chests.
What is harder to tell from the screenshots is:
- Does the sequence span across batches of 10 chests? So if my ninth epic chest contains 125 sigils, will the first epic in the next batch of 10 always contain 75? Or might it start with any value?
- Is there a similar sequence of legendary chests? So if I opened lots of batches of 10 chests, would a similar sequence be apparent in the number of sigils held in the 10th (legendary) chest in each batch.
If they were not random, I would be able to predict with perfect accuracy.
I’ve been tracking this stuff for a long time.
But I do not wish to argue.
Sorry but that sounds very much like a conspiracy theory.
I have opened 210 batches of 10 chests myself and my average of the first 50 chests was exactly 1000 sigils, while not a single drop was even below 850 (925, 875, 850, 1500, 850). And this is excluding the bonus chests.
The overall average is around 1125 sigils per 10.
By the way, there are countless threads about Super Sigil Chests and their droprates, I have posted my data in another thread already.
Can a mod close some threads and redirect everyone to one single thread please?
@TheRedDelilah @ModMat @Psarus
My meaning, I think, was not clear.
I did not mean 50 at once or even in a single event. I meant that any sample smaller than 50 would likely have an underrepresentation of 1,000 sigil drops. So, the average would be lower.
I agree that small samples should not be used to determine an average
As long as you meant “not,” I like the post.
I did end up with 2 1.0 k drops as my bonus chests
Sorry, wasn’t meaning to start an argument - it’s just that I have yet to see a single screenshot from this season where the epic chests weren’t in a recurring sequence of 125, then 75, then 25, then 50. I did see a screenshot that someone posted from last summer where that was not the case, so perhaps something has changed?
If you’ve been tracking this, do you have records of what the same player has obtained from consecutive batches of 10 chests? Or have you only been keeping total counts of each value?
Although I have collected screenshots from individual users, after collating the data, I have no way that is not extremely time-consuming to break it apart again.
I do see what you are saying–that the epic drops appear to be occuring in a specific pattern. I am not sure I can explain this, other than to give an illustration (and it doesn’t really explain, merely shows that what you are seeing is probably too small a sample to draw any strong conclusions).
Here is a good way to think of SS chest drops, which I hope will help It’s a metaphor, since we’re talking about computers, but it may help you visualize it.
Imagine a slot machine for each chest, if you open 10 chests at once, one of these slots has a “broken” first wheel that is always on 1, so it will always spin the third wheel for your loot.
The other nine have a first wheel that has 333 “sides” (so, it’s a big wheel). Randomly distributed on this first wheel are 320 zeros and 13 ones.
If the first wheel stops on a zero, you will get an epic drop, so the second wheel is now spinning. This wheel has only 4 sides on it, 0, 1, 2, and 3. Each number corresponds to a specific epic drop: 25, 50, 75, and 100.
If the first wheel stops on a one, you will get a legendary drop. Now, the second wheel does nothing and the third wheel starts spinning. This wheel has 13 sides on it, with 10 zeros, 2 ones, and 1 two, randomly distributed. If you get a 2 on this wheel, you will get the 1,000 sigil drop, If you get a 1, you get 500, and if you get a zero, 250.
Factoring in the guaranteed legendary drop, you have, in any set of 10 SS chests, an 86.465% chance that any one chest will be epic and a 13.535% chance any specific chest will be legendary. If you open them one at a time, you lose the guaranteed legendary, and your chances are now 96.10% epic and 3.90% Legendary.
Ignoring the Bonus chest, which is really just another slot machine with the first wheel stuck on 1, you need to open 50 chests before it becomes statistically likely (although just barely) that you will get a 1,000 sigil drop.
The key thing to remember is that your chances of any given drop for any given chest are always the same, no matter how many times you “pull.” It’s just that with a set number of drops (only 7), any large enough sample will look almost identical to any other large enough sample. In this case, there are really 345 different chests (although many are duplicates). So, samples of 350 SS chests, regardless of who took them or when, should all look virtually identical.
I hope that helps more than confuses. If you’re a D&D fan, swap the slots and wheels for dice.
I know Sigil drops have remained unchanged in probability since at least fall of 2017, and I think since summer 2017. Before that, there were a greater number of drops (remember the 750 sigils?)–so, I do not think a direct comparison would be possible. Also, I lost my data prior to Fall 2017–it was backed up to a thumb drive my son decided I no longer needed. Kids happen.