It’s been announced a couple times now, so my guess is that keeping the Bazaar is no longer an option. Its removal has been stated in official patch notes.
But here is another way to see just how much better the Bazaar was than the current iteration of Atlas Chests (I’ll ignore the free card as well as the ability to see for certain what any set of “9” cards would provide–we will look only at the possible prizes and their probabilities. These chests are quite easy, since there is no “guarantee” of anything–buying 10 does not ensure a Legendary Drop, and the bonus chest is not a guaranteed legendary either.
The highlight for the fires is simply to indicate that these were removed from active rotation when the Kingpin event was retired. I rated the cards with “equivalent” rarity to show some consistency between chest and card rating systems. (So,1 is common and 5 is Mythic.)
What will happen to the keystones that we do have? How is their relative value to atlas chests going to be determined? Even on a free card, the chances of getting a 5-star card are higher than the chances of getting a legendary drop from a chest (and the cards are better).
Also, depending upon what card you draw, the probability for the remaining cards changes by different amounts.
Let’s say you get the “most likely card” on every pull (and we all know you CAN get the 5 star card on that free pull). But if you ALWAYS pulled the most likely, what would it look like?
First Draw - 1 star card at 53.57%
Second Draw - 1 star card at 43.48%
Third Draw - 2 star card at 36.11%
Fourth Draw - 1 star card at 33.90%
Fifth Draw - 3 star card at 46.15%
Sixth Draw - 2 Star card at 43.33%
Seventh Draw - 3 star card at 52.94%
Eighth Draw - 4 star card at 62.50%
Ninth Draw - 5 star card at 100%
The best gold drop from the Atlas Chests is 1.8M, and it is a legendary drop with a 1.54% chance that you will get it every time – the chance never gets better and it never gets worse. The best gold drop from the Bazaar is 1.5M, and it is a 3 star card, meaning that, even if you follow the “most likely” path, you will pull it no later than the 7th draw, and you could get it on the 5th draw (cards with the same star rating have the exact same weighting, so you have a 50% chance of getting either 3 star card when a three star is selected by the RNG god).
It has NEVER taken me 9 draws to get both the 4 and 5 star cards. Not even once. I have occasionally gotten them both in 5 draws, and, to the best of my recollection, I have always gotten both 4 and 5 star cards within 7 draws. Even if it took 8, it’s still a better deal than buying the whole deck (in terms of keystone cost).
In any set of “9” cards, there is ALWAYS a 4 and a 5 star card. You have no such guarantee with the chests. Here’s a closer comparison of 4/5 and Epic/Legendary (with one 3 star thrown in twice so the total number of prizes match:
Remember, the card percentages are on the first draw (the free one) in that image–they are the WORST odds you can have. Each subsequent draw IMPROVES the likelihood you will get any particular remaining card.
I know keeping the bazaar is not an option at this point (or, if it is, it’s less likely than getting a Mythic Ammo Glyph with rage secondary), but can something please be done to bring the chests into parity with the Bazaar, which no player I have spoken to wanted to go away? This change – removing the Bazaar – at least with the current chest system in Atlas, is a huge step backwards for all Atlas players.