Trading post value analysis - Eclipse week 7

Reginald is back, and he seems to have found a nice stash of goodies. Let’s see if his prices are looking up to standard too this week!

Day 5 analysis

  • Inner Fire x25 for 250 sigils This is a bit better than the day 1 deal. About 15 golds worth of inners, and the ruby cost of about 3 golds. I think that’s still a touch on the expensive side, but if inners are really the one thing you need most it’s worth considering.
  • 200% wood boost x20 for 200 sigils Lol no.
  • 3h timers x5 for 500 ice shards Hell yes. Give me all of those, especially at such a low cost.
  • Gold chest x10 for 300 sigils Very good deal, the gold chests should already drop 200 sigils average so this is a sweet deal. Not quite a match for the day 1 platinums but still an absolute must-have.
  • Legendary warrior HP glyph for 350 sigils Not too sure about this one. It’s a good combination of stats (HP and rage), but at legendary it’s still just +3% HP and +3.9% rage, and 350 sigils seems a bit on the steep side for just a legendary. I guess if you don’t have a lot of seasonal runes yet this could be ok to buy.
Day 4

Day 4 analysis

  • Mythic hunter attack glyph for 1500 sigils Pretty rubbish. This one gives just 5% attack and a boost to a useless resist. Don’t get this one, just use glyphs from seasonals, or the newer +6% attack/+3% hp ones.
  • Defensive gunpowder x100 for 150 sigils Same cost as last time. It’s very cheap compared to buying in the forge, but I still don’t think I’ve ever met anyone running low on these, any long time player will have thousands more of these than shields and hammers, most likely.
  • Ice crafting shards x4500 for 5000 wind crafting shards Fair element-conversion trade, but unfortunately still such small quantities they won’t matter, barely enough for a single gear upgrade.
  • Cloak x10 and death gaze x10 for 100 sigils These are useful spells, and if you do need them it’s cheaper than buying them outright (which would be 800 rubies), but at 450 rubies worth of sigils it’s not a massive bargain. I guess it’s a decent enough deal if you regularly run out of both these spells.
  • Energy packs x15 and dragon hp boost x300 for 250 sigils Slightly better deal than on day 1, which was 300 sigils for 20 inner fires (which is proportionally similar), but still not a very good deal. I’d pass on this unless you really need the dragon boosts for some reason.
Day 3

Day 3 analysis

  • Elemental embers x200 for 300 electrum bars Not a good deal really, you’re much better off building a tower with electrum and transforming/merging it into embers.
  • Lumber pack x10 for 50 sigils Lol no
  • 12h timers x10 for 150 sigils Slightly worse than the day 1 deal of 10 days for 250 sigils. That one was interesting only if you’re not going for draconics, this one is even more borderline. Wouldn’t call it terrible, but probably not worth getting unless timers are really the only thing you need and you have tons of sigils.
  • Draconic Chest x5 for 500 sigils This is one more chest than you’d get from the festive line at the same cost, and that’s already a very good deal. Buy these.
  • Rune dust x500.000 for 100 sigils A bit more expensive than the dust in the past few exotic lines (7m for 1000 sigils). Not terrible if you’re short on dust. If you still have enough dust, I’d pass this one and stock up elsewhere.
Day 2

Day 2 analysis

  • Rubies x1000 for 200 sigils Good but not amazing. 1000 rubies will average 240 sigils when spent on super sigils, so this will give a small profit if you can miss the sigils until then.

  • Bronze chest x5 and silver chest x5 for 5000 fire turret shards Fire shards aren’t worth much these days, but 5 bronze and silver chests is really nothing at all. I’d rather hang on to these until a better offer comes.

  • Food pack x20 for 100 sigils Lol no

  • Legendary Red Mage HP glyph for 250 sigils A good useful glyph, if you’re not already loaded up with legendary or better glyphs on your base. The price is very reasonable if you have a use for it.

  • 50 chisels for 250 sigils This is a decent price, same as last time, and the same cost per chisel as we saw in the exotic rune lines. Worth it if you need any chisels.

Day 1

Day 1 analysis

  • Platinum chests x5 for 375 sigils Excellent deal! The average sigil drops from these alone almost pay for them, and with other drops taken into account this is a must have. Plat chests are higher rng but at this price they’re a must buy.

  • 48h timers x5 for 250 sigils 250 sigils is about 1200 rubies worth, so about 3 gold chests. Alternatively it’s worth 2 draconic chests if bought from the festive line. Those contain about 3 days and about 5 days respectively, making this a reasonable offer, but not a massive bargain. If you’re not getting draconics, and you need timers a lot, this might be a decent buy for you.

  • Dark crafting shards x2250 for 2500 fire crafting shards Fair element-conversion trade, but unfortunately still such small quantities they won’t matter, barely enough for a single gear upgrade.

  • 200% xp boosts x5 + XP potions x5 for 100 sigils Even less boosts per sigil compared to last trading post, and with their extremely limited shelf life I can’t really put much value on the potions. All in all I’d hard pass on these.

  • Inner fire x20 and Dragon attack boost x400 for 300 sigils Looking at the inners alone, it’s not a great deal. 20 inners is about 12 gold chests’ worth, and it’s only a relatively small part of the value you get from those golds. And the cost is equivalent to about 5 gold chests, which is really too high for just the inners. The number of attack boosts is impressive, but most players will have a lifetime supply of them already, making it hard to put any value on them. If for any reason you are low on attack boosts though, this is a good way to load them up fast. I’d say don’t buy this unless you actually need dragon attack boosts.

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Excited Screeching

Thank you! :heart_eyes:
Get ready for a week of potato alarms :joy:

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Thanks :pray:
always impatiently waiting for your insight and you never desappoint

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Thanks for the analysis! I got lucky on the plats, I used a net of about 900 sigils for the goodies from 50 chests :heart_eyes:

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Thanks! I was curious what you’d think about the plat chests if one had no sigils saved, should one open some saved gold chests to get the plat chest deal? Is it THAT good? Cause I feel like ol Reggie is tryin to trick me out of a mythic next season.

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I would yes. You can also then save the plat chests for next season.

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I’ve been such a loud potato these past few days, I’m sure you guys are sick of me by now :rofl::rofl:

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Nah, I’m always loud lol.

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Wow, I didn’t even think of that lol… the heck is wrong with me?

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Cause if someone is low on sigils their is no way too do this unless you open platinums by testing the 5 drops first then you decide whether or not their even worth risking your Sigils on. Had too sacrifice 500 bronze and got some back but after 45 didn’t get any sigils so either this depends on algorithm or luck and algorithm.

Editing: I did mean Sequencing :joy::joy::joy: it’s in the game’s files somewhere which I can’t access but it’s still circuitry and data algorithm which platinums have data just it’s hard too determine it without opening them up just as the ammo rune sequencing.

Shit! I would have saved those plats for next season, but I opened them and didn’t got any sigils, and what’s the best way to get more sigils?

Either opening gold chests, or high event performance.

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I believe the word you’re looking for is “sequence”.

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Opening just 5 chests is a horrid drop chance and a horrid way of deciding whether to continue. That is like putting a single coin in a slot machine and hoping you get the jackpot.

Actually, the algorithm is thus apparently. Take the drop table, multiply each drop by the weight of the item and add to an array (a list), at the end randomize the list. Now do this for all drop tables that have an expiration date past 6 days (ie new event) and you are done. (Atlas chests and badge chests only randomize every new Atlas season.) Instead of the automatic randomization, it could be part of the event/season startup sequence too.

So how many platinum chests would you have to open to see the sequence?

A lot.

7570 Epic, 25 Legendary, and 15 Mythic in the main sequence. Sorry I was wrong, it is 5 mythic per 100 not 1. I misread my own data.
5 Legendary, and 1 Mythic in the bonus sequence.
Epic count is 39.
Legendary count is 38.
Mythic count is 32.

You would get 29 mythic drops on average every 180 chests opened. So to get the entire mythic sequence, you would need to open 2,880640 platinum chests. By that point you would have gotten so many multiples of even the legendary it would have evened out the huge mythic drop.

To top it off, if you were wanting sigils, your chance of getting sigils is 8/39 epic prizes, 5/38 legendary prizes, and 5/32 mythic prizes.

So really, if you want lots of goodies from platinum chests, you need to open a lot. Even 50 will get you much closer to the average than just 5 will.

Edit: FYI, the drop tables are not in the game files. You have to grab it separately every event. It’s not just downloaded and stored to your phone like the tower/dragon info is.

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I would rather not waste a lot of chests on gambling, but still how rare is that 1k mythic drop cause I’m assuming the sequence is revolved around more luck than say Silver chests bronze chests and gold chests. It’s fortunate they only cost 375 sigils per 5 but hey someone said it worked for them when they tried it they could predict whether or not I could have gotten an unlucky batch or not and say it will not be very lucky or good too open up another 5 set
Very similar too Draconics too.

They actually all work the same. Just different drop tables and different prizing. The prizes are different, the weights are different, but they all work the exact same way.

Technically you are gambling with gold chests and bronze chests too. Gold chests have a 100 long sequence of epic and legendary same as the platinum 100 long total sequence. (So do bronze with 71 common, 28 rare, and 1 epic per 100 opened but they have no bonus sequence.) Only difference with golds is the bonus is always legendary so it just takes the next one in the sequence. Silvers have many more drop lists but the sequence itself is still 100 long, plus its bonus sequence. Draconics are the only one that is different in that it’s main sequence is 882 with bonus sequence of 266.

So really, any chest you get you are gambling on the outcome. You just happen to get more golds, silvers, and bronzes so you don’t see it as such because you do open more of them. If you were to only open 5 bronzes, your chance of getting an epic drop is 5%. Your chance of getting an epic sigil drop is 8/66 or 12% of that which is roughly 0.6%.

If you want the actual percentages, I suggest you go look at the data on the Chest Drops sheet in my Spreadsheet Vault. They were re-verified just last month. You can look at all the percentages by going to each individual chest sheet.

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I don’t see any sequencing data all I see is percentage odds so idk how this helps exactly all I see is percentage of a drop rate for every chest

On another note, thank you for your analysis as always @Morreion. I bought all the platinum chests and timers last night. Probably will open all the platinums later. I can always use more embers.

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Well, that’s all you are going to get is the percentage data. They moved the actual sequences server side after Summerkai season at the end of August 2019. So if we want to get the actual sequences, we need to work it out as a community. Since it changes every event, we need to work it out every event.

As for the actual drop tables, I don’t have those published. Not sure why I should except for a select few that might need them. It’s just a bunch of numbers anyways.

Like this:
Sequence - readable drop name - amount of drop - weight of drop in the sequence
image

Edit: To be clear. We cannot predict what we are going to get. If you want to be able to possibly predict what you will get, I suggest you look at and get involved in the community efforts led by @FieryxFury to gather the silver and gold sequences almost every event.

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I’ve already did that with the silver chests once but in order too get the data you’d need spenders help for those two gambling chests and I don’t spend, I grind chests from dust and bones.

But technically yes it has too be above 100 - 150 plats from what I heard from because the mythic drops only appear after 100 platinum openings and the sequence of the mythic sigil drop changes each event. So you have too be careful with how much rubies you invest in these things if it’s on port days.