Trading post value analysis - Eclipse week 7

Opening just 5 chests is a horrid drop chance and a horrid way of deciding whether to continue. That is like putting a single coin in a slot machine and hoping you get the jackpot.

Actually, the algorithm is thus apparently. Take the drop table, multiply each drop by the weight of the item and add to an array (a list), at the end randomize the list. Now do this for all drop tables that have an expiration date past 6 days (ie new event) and you are done. (Atlas chests and badge chests only randomize every new Atlas season.) Instead of the automatic randomization, it could be part of the event/season startup sequence too.

So how many platinum chests would you have to open to see the sequence?

A lot.

7570 Epic, 25 Legendary, and 15 Mythic in the main sequence. Sorry I was wrong, it is 5 mythic per 100 not 1. I misread my own data.
5 Legendary, and 1 Mythic in the bonus sequence.
Epic count is 39.
Legendary count is 38.
Mythic count is 32.

You would get 29 mythic drops on average every 180 chests opened. So to get the entire mythic sequence, you would need to open 2,880640 platinum chests. By that point you would have gotten so many multiples of even the legendary it would have evened out the huge mythic drop.

To top it off, if you were wanting sigils, your chance of getting sigils is 8/39 epic prizes, 5/38 legendary prizes, and 5/32 mythic prizes.

So really, if you want lots of goodies from platinum chests, you need to open a lot. Even 50 will get you much closer to the average than just 5 will.

Edit: FYI, the drop tables are not in the game files. You have to grab it separately every event. It’s not just downloaded and stored to your phone like the tower/dragon info is.

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I would rather not waste a lot of chests on gambling, but still how rare is that 1k mythic drop cause I’m assuming the sequence is revolved around more luck than say Silver chests bronze chests and gold chests. It’s fortunate they only cost 375 sigils per 5 but hey someone said it worked for them when they tried it they could predict whether or not I could have gotten an unlucky batch or not and say it will not be very lucky or good too open up another 5 set
Very similar too Draconics too.

They actually all work the same. Just different drop tables and different prizing. The prizes are different, the weights are different, but they all work the exact same way.

Technically you are gambling with gold chests and bronze chests too. Gold chests have a 100 long sequence of epic and legendary same as the platinum 100 long total sequence. (So do bronze with 71 common, 28 rare, and 1 epic per 100 opened but they have no bonus sequence.) Only difference with golds is the bonus is always legendary so it just takes the next one in the sequence. Silvers have many more drop lists but the sequence itself is still 100 long, plus its bonus sequence. Draconics are the only one that is different in that it’s main sequence is 882 with bonus sequence of 266.

So really, any chest you get you are gambling on the outcome. You just happen to get more golds, silvers, and bronzes so you don’t see it as such because you do open more of them. If you were to only open 5 bronzes, your chance of getting an epic drop is 5%. Your chance of getting an epic sigil drop is 8/66 or 12% of that which is roughly 0.6%.

If you want the actual percentages, I suggest you go look at the data on the Chest Drops sheet in my Spreadsheet Vault. They were re-verified just last month. You can look at all the percentages by going to each individual chest sheet.

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I don’t see any sequencing data all I see is percentage odds so idk how this helps exactly all I see is percentage of a drop rate for every chest

On another note, thank you for your analysis as always @Morreion. I bought all the platinum chests and timers last night. Probably will open all the platinums later. I can always use more embers.

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Well, that’s all you are going to get is the percentage data. They moved the actual sequences server side after Summerkai season at the end of August 2019. So if we want to get the actual sequences, we need to work it out as a community. Since it changes every event, we need to work it out every event.

As for the actual drop tables, I don’t have those published. Not sure why I should except for a select few that might need them. It’s just a bunch of numbers anyways.

Like this:
Sequence - readable drop name - amount of drop - weight of drop in the sequence
image

Edit: To be clear. We cannot predict what we are going to get. If you want to be able to possibly predict what you will get, I suggest you look at and get involved in the community efforts led by @FieryxFury to gather the silver and gold sequences almost every event.

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I’ve already did that with the silver chests once but in order too get the data you’d need spenders help for those two gambling chests and I don’t spend, I grind chests from dust and bones.

But technically yes it has too be above 100 - 150 plats from what I heard from because the mythic drops only appear after 100 platinum openings and the sequence of the mythic sigil drop changes each event. So you have too be careful with how much rubies you invest in these things if it’s on port days.

Thanks! Got the plat chests… @Morreion when is the best time for opening plats? Been hoarding them for ages lol

It doesn’t matter when you open them

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They always have the same drops, so like RuRu said it doesn’t matter, unless you want to use them for sigils in the first two weeks. Law of averages states that the more you have the closer you’ll be to the average marks, and it’ll be less of a gamble. Best of luck!

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Open them at exactly 9:01pm while standing with one leg in the shower and 3 paper clips held between your teeth and balancing an Oxford Dictionary on your head. That’s the best time

Or open them whenever :woman_shrugging:t4: :man_shrugging:t4:

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Thank you for always doing this morr :+1:t3:

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Orrrr… screenshots from people who have actually saved up enough without spending :upside_down_face:

Nonsense lol. I got one within about 10 platinum drops. It was 2K sigils :slightly_smiling_face:

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What crackhead told you that nonsense?

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Uhhh I am gonna quietly leave

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200 sigils for 1k rubies, seems slightly better or on par with super sigil value?? :thinking: or i could be wrong

Sure looks like it

It is slightly worth it.
I think it is like 1200 sigils for 5K rubies so you make a profit

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Come to the shadow corner. :rofl: We can wait for the next analysis.

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Ooh, an excuse to make that heretic @Guyindacorner into @Guyintheothercorner !?

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