When should we open gold chests for sigils?

#21

I should have 95+ golds to open next Fort, 6 flaks are expensive af lol

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#22

I’ve got 700 lined up to add a full new flak in a few events (mostly in the form of rubies). 700 should be just about enough to get a new flak to 60 in both timers and embers.

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#23

For healing potions. :crazy_face:

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#24

Using mech’s spreadsheet (and only using the items on the summary page), I get the following for opening 31 golds:

Common - 629 sigils, 2376 egg tokens, 641 hours of speedups, 222 pearls.
Doesn’t matter when you open, you get the above stuff.

Fort - +7 sigils, +113 hrs, +1166 ice and fire shards, +128 pearls, +3675 embers.

Breed - +6093 egg tokens, +7 frags, +40 hrs, +25 pearls.

Feed - +43 sigils, +3191 egg tokens, + 5 frags, +826 embers.

PvP - +11 sigils, +3188 egg tokens, +12 frags, +16 hrs, +105 pearls, 50 fires, 33 packs.


My conclusion from looking at this is that embers are the only real reason to ever open during Fort, since timers are only a difference of ~4 days per 31 chests and if you can pick up an extra prize or three with the PvP items, it’s going to make it even less. For that matter you’re looking at hundreds of gold chests to even move the needle one tower worth at higher levels. I suppose if you’re far enough up the prize ladder, diminishing returns would make those items less valuable, but I don’t spend enough to make that relevant to me.

If you’re looking for more eggs, you’re better off just grinding tokens versus buying golds. Unless you’re really time constricted or don’t have access to an Atlas bank, food/wood packs can be replaced with a little work.

So my plan is to open enough golds during Fort to keep my flaks going and open everything else during PvP.

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#25

But it’s 2019 and we know exactly what will be in our next 31 chests, or can tell within the first ten or so if we haven’t tracked in the past.

I think this sort of average data may be most useful for determining how to value the prizes. That is, it’s an input for me to help answer the question “How many chests is it worth opening to get to the next (Inner Fire, Pearl, Ember, whatever) drop?”

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#26

If I understand how the predictor works, it only really helps with this week. So yes, you can track where you are on the sequence and determine your exact prizes right now.

But really, what you’re deciding is whether to open this week vs. some other week, and this gives you an estimate of what some other week might give you. Since (as I understand it) the distribution gets reshuffled weekly, there’s no way to tell exactly what you’ll get until that shuffle happens.

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#27

The list is shuffled each event. The indices aren’t.

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#28

Your statement
31 gold chests = ~3675 embers

level 75 takes : 8,500 embers
So you’d get 43.24% of the embers required to get the last level of a flak…
I’d say 3675 embers does more than “barely make the needle move”

Just think you’re understating the value of those embers

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#29

That quote was in regards to timers. It’s absolutely worth opening golds during Fort if you need embers. It moves the needle significantly, AND even if it didn’t, there’s really no other reasonable way to move that needle.

But then, it’s also a great use for the predictor. If you can plan ahead far enough, you can see if you’ll get an ember jackpot in the next N chests and spend your golds only when that math works in your favor. If you’re in a bad part of the distribution, wait for next Fort.

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closed #30

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